The price attached to a bid in January may no longer reflect the cost of materials by the time the project breaks ground in June. That risk has become difficult to ignore in 2026. During the first four months of the year, construction input prices rose by 6.2% — more than the total increase recorded over the previous three years. By May, inputs for new nonresidential construction were 8.4% higher than a year earlier.
The increases are not evenly distributed across all products. Aluminum mill shapes were up 37.3% year over year in April, while copper and brass mill shapes rose 20.9%. Steel mill products increased 13.3%, and fabricated structural metal, bar joists, and rebar climbed 13.6%.
For estimators, this means one thing: construction material pricing cannot be treated as a fixed number copied from the last bid.
Use current pricing, not familiar pricing
Historical cost data is useful, but it should be a reference point rather than the final answer. A price that worked on a similar project six months ago may now leave a noticeable gap in the estimate.
Before a bid is finalized, estimators need to be accurate with all material pricing. Structural steel, aluminium, copper, electrical supplies and features from other trades, need closer attention than material with more stable supplies.
Supplier quotes should clearly state how long the price is valid. A quote valid for seven days carries a different level of risk from one guaranteed for 60 days. The expected purchase date matters as well. If materials will not be ordered until several months after the contract is awarded, today’s price may not be the price the contractor ultimately pays.
When reviewing construction material costs, estimators should also confirm:
- Freight, delivery, and fuel charges
- Minimum order quantities
- Taxes and supplier fees
- Lead times and availability
- Approved product substitutions
- Storage or early-purchase requirements
A low unit price is not always the lowest installed cost. A product with a long lead time or high delivery charge may create more expense elsewhere in the project.
Build the price risk into the bid
Estimators cannot predict every market movement, but they can make the risk visible.
Contractors need to single out materials that are volatile from the rest of the stable estimates and material pricing. This strategy makes it easier to review when cost changes occur. Quotes in the bid need to be properly marked, accurate to date, documented and linked to all the relevant scopes. This way the teams know exactly what the pricing is based on in the estimates.
For projects that are long-term or longer, consider where escalation allowance matters. This can be calculated through percentages, which is assigned to specific materials, or procurement schedules.
Contract language also matters. Price-adjustment clauses, material allowances, quote-validity periods, and exclusions can help establish what happens if costs change significantly before procurement. These terms should be clear to the owner or general contractor before the agreement is signed.
Alternates can provide another layer of protection. Approved substitute materials, early-release packages, or different procurement options may help control costs without reducing the quality of the work.
Smart estimating in 2026 is not about guessing exactly where prices will go. It is about knowing which construction material costs are most exposed, checking them close to bid day, and clearly accounting for the time between estimating, award, and purchase.
The market may not sit still, but the estimate should be prepared to move with it.
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